Good afternoon, investors 🌤️
🚨 US INFLATION RUNS HOT AGAIN: October CPI beats forecasts
📊 Headline CPI: +0.4% MoM (est. +0.3%, Sep +0.6%)
📊 Core CPI: +0.3% MoM (est. +0.2%), the 3rd straight 0.3% print
🛒 Food +0.5%, energy +0.7%, shelter +0.3% (over 30% of the rise)
⚠️ No official YoY rate this month: the 2025 shutdown wiped out the Oct 2025 base
Fed Governor Waller said this morning that if core came in around 0.3% or higher, a 50bp hike in December "should be considered." Core just printed 0.3%.
🟢 Bull case: headline slowed from 0.6% to 0.4%, oil is falling below $90 Brent, and a hike that's mostly priced in may already be in stocks.
🔴 Bear case: core is stuck at 0.3%, and a 50bp December hike is now in play. That's a direct hit to long-duration tech and AI valuations.
👇 25bp or 50bp in December? Where do you stand?
$SPX500 $NSDQ100 $NVDA $TSLA $AAPL $MSFT $AMZN $META $GOOG $BTC
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